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Tuesday, August 31, 2004
Page: FP1 / FRONT
Section: Financial Post
Byline: Keith Kalawsky
Source: Financial Post (Canada)
AIC
watches its glory days fade: Withdrawals have outpaced sales
for 27 consecutive months and no one is sure when they'll bounce back
National Post
Mutual fund
company AIC Ltd. is beset by lousy performance and sagging sales. In the
first of a two-part series, the Financial Post's Keith Kalawsky looks at
what happened to the darling of Canada's fund industry. Tomorrow: Chief
investment officer Jonathan Wellum's bold plan to rebuild AIC.
Mike Bock, an investment advisor in
Calgary, has sold AIC Ltd. mutual funds for years, but his confidence in
the company is slipping.
Lousy performance has prompted
investors to pull $1.64-billion from AIC funds since the beginning of
2002, with net redemptions averaging $130-million a month in the first
half of 2004. In fact, withdrawals have outpaced sales for 27
consecutive months, a dubious achievement outdone only by the 28-month
drought still ravaging AGF Management Ltd.
Mr. Bock, who runs Ironman
Financial, a financial planning firm affiliated with Aegon Dealer
Services Canada Inc., is unsure whether AIC will bounce back, and he
does not really know what to tell clients perturbed by their dismal
returns.
"That has been a sore point in
my portfolio for some time now," he says. "If you've been in
any one of these funds since 1998, you haven't made a nickel."
Disgruntlement with AIC, led by
self-made billionaire and philanthropist Michael Lee-Chin, is rising
among advisors and other fund distributors.
Down deep, Mr. Bock believes
investors ought to think long-term, just like AIC preaches. But it's
hard to make a case for sticking with AIC, Canada's 13th-largest fund
company with $11.7-billion in assets under management, if it doesn't
start producing for its unitholders.
"Going forward, I think that
AIC is in a position where they should perform well," says Mr.
Bock, who is somewhat heartened by AIC's improving results this year.
"But I get phone calls. If a client says, 'I want out of this. I
don't give a shit what you tell me, just get me out of this,' there's
nothing you can do to change their minds, and that's why [AIC] is
getting redemptions."
AIC's glory years began in the
mid-1990s, when the company's funds were as red hot as technology
stocks. AIC won numerous industry accolades and Mr. Lee-Chin's
popularity quickly expanded beyond the company's home base of
Burlington, Ont. Mr. Lee-Chin, number 216 on the
Forbes list of the world's wealthiest people, is a powerful
presence and his aggressive and savvy marketing efforts were key to
AIC's impressive growth.
He was a bona fide star among
investors, who flocked to his seminars and couldn't get enough of his
value-investing message, which was cribbed from his idol, Warren Buffett.
In mid-1997, AIC managed $5.7-billion in assets. Just one year later,
its assets had more than doubled to $11.9-billion.
But if AIC's redemptions continue
at this punishing magnitude, the company will shrink to half its size in
three to four years. As at July 31, AIC managed fewer assets than it did
in July, 1998, losing ground to the Canadian banks and other major
players such as IGM Financial and AIM Trimark Investments.
At the same time, AIC will have to
sell more stocks from its portfolio to raise enough cash to cover all
the withdrawals.
For example, AIC has been forced to
sell 3.6 million shares of CI Funds Management Inc. since February,
according to regulatory filings, about 1.2% of its stake in the growing
asset manager run by Bill Holland.
To his credit, Jonathan Wellum,
chief investment officer at AIC, says much of the anxiety and concern of
financial advisors and unitholders is justified.
Travelling with Mr. Lee-Chin across
the country to visit groups of investment advisors and other sellers of
AIC funds, he's heard all of the criticisms. Backed by Mr. Lee-Chin, Mr.
Wellum said he has overhauled the company's operations to improve
portfolio management, along with sales and marketing. He will go back to
those same advisors in November to give them a progress report.
"There's a number of issues
with the company, we know those issues, and we acknowledge that some are
our fault and some were caused by tough markets," he said in an
interview.
"The ones that are our fault,
the issues that we can correct, we've really been putting a full-front
assault on them."
Mr. Wellum's changes go beyond
tweaking. While Mr. Lee-Chin has been the heart and soul of AIC, he
looks to be handing much of the day-to-day management to Mr. Wellum and
his team, which includes John Miller, vice-president and portfolio
manager, and new hires, David Whyte, executive vice-president in charge
of sales, marketing, client services and dealer relations, Andrew
Dorrington, senior vice-president and head of client strategy, and Peter
Hodgson, vice-president and national sales manager.
AIC used to be a two-man show,
tightly controlled by Mr. Lee-Chin and Mr. Wellum, but those days appear
to be over.
"One of things that Michael
has done at AIC is put a full management team in here so he doesn't have
to be micro-managing every element of the business," Mr. Wellum
said.
AIC's mantra -- "Buy. Hold.
And Prosper" - drilled into our minds by a marketing blitz and the
company's magnanimous founder, is admittedly catchy and smart, since it
discourages withdrawals, if redemption charges weren't enough to keep
investors from fleeing.
And investing for the long term,
instead of constantly chasing the hottest funds, reduces costs and
taxes. But this admirable approach doesn't jibe with AIC's traditional
focus on financial stocks.
Buying equities and sticking with
them works well only when your portfolio is properly diversified,
industry consultants and analysts say. At AIC, however, some of its
largest and most popular funds have nearly half of their assets invested
in financials, such as banks and wealth management firms. (The fund has
taken some steps of late to diversify.) This over-concentration in a
single area, and AIC's preference to invest in a relatively small number
of companies, have meant added risk.
AIC's Diversified Canada fund, for
instance, has invested 47% of its $3.1-billion portfolio in financials,
including Power Financial Corp. and Toronto-Dominion Bank, according to
AIC's Web site. The second-largest sector in the fund is consumer
staples at nearly 20%, and then consumer discretionary at about 14%.
To some observers, this heavy focus
on financial services is inappropriate for a supposedly diversified
fund.
"That's insane," said one
industry executive. "If you're going to be focussed, you've got to
have broader sector representation, in my view. Otherwise, you're really
tilting portfolio risk exposure."
The Diversified Canada fund posted
a 13.6% annual compounded return in the past year, according to AIC,
compared with 26.7% for the S&P/TSX composite total return index.
Over the past three years, the fund is down 1.6%, compared with 1% for
the index.
Similarly, AIC's $1.66-billion
Advantage Fund has nearly 62% of its money in various financial stocks,
spread among wealth management firms, banks and diversified financials.
The fund lagged the market for the past five years.
Aside from its concentration on
financial services, AIC's relative performance has also suffered because
it has largely shunned such hot sectors as income trusts and oil and
gas. The rising Canadian dollar has also depressed AIC's returns from
its U.S. investments.
"It's difficult to say at the
moment if people should be running back in to [AIC]," said Mark
Chow, an analyst with Morningstar Research Inc. in Toronto. "You
never want to chase returns, but you do want to see that
improvement."
Some of AIC's funds are now
investing in more companies outside of the financial sector, such as
Sherwin-Williams Co., International Speedway Corp. and American Italian
Pasta Co. It has also dumped overhyped stocks such as SBC Communications
Inc. and Viacom Inc.
AIC has also moved from investing
in pure-play financial-services stocks: companies focused on a single
business like wealth management. In the past, Mr. Wellum loaded up on
companies like Charles Schwab & Co. Inc., T. Rowe Price Group Inc.
and Franklin Resources in AIC's American Advantage Fund. These firms are
dependent on the health of the capital markets. It burned him badly.
"When the tech bubble blew up,
so did all the trading volumes, all the investment banking and so on.
His fund came crashing down at that point," Mr. Chow said.
"They haven't been able to get out of that rut they fell into when
the tech craze and the trading frenzy stopped."
Another problem is that investors
unhappy with the performance of AIC's flagship Advantage funds often
take their money out of the company instead of transferring it to
another AIC fund. There is the perception that AIC does not have enough
choice or diversity in its product lineup. This is causing some
advisors, brokers and other distributors to drop AIC in favour of other
fund companies.
AIC is also going to have to do a
better job convincing investors to stick with them -- and that its
investing style is sound -- and to combat what Mr. Bock calls it the
"Trimark syndrome."
Although Trimark was a hot fund
company in its own right, it ran into the same problem as AIC in the
late 1990s, when technology stocks grabbed everyone's attention.
Trimark's value-investing focus fell out of favour and redemptions
soared. Trimark suffered 30 consecutive losing months, still the
Canadian record, and eventually sold to Amvescap PLC.
To recover some momentum, AIC is
going to have to perform, instead of just telling investors to sit
tight.
"I'm in a hold pattern with
AIC for the time being," Mr. Bock said. "The buy, hold,
prosper mentality with AIC -- if they don't pull their socks up, that's
really going to bite them in the butt."
AIC looks for breathing room
Fixing what's wrong may start with loosening Lee-Chin's firm grip.
Wednesday, September 01, 2004
Today, in the second of a two-part series on AIC Ltd., the Financial Post's Keith Kalawsky looks at Jonathan Wellum's plans to turn around the fund company.
Jonathan Wellum has been the right-hand man of Michael Lee-Chin, founder and chief executive of AIC Ltd., for more than a decade.
Even when Mr. Wellum left in 1999 to start his own investment firm, he still managed some AIC mutual funds, and Mr. Lee-Chin took a 20% stake in the company. In 2002, AIC bought out Mr. Wellum, and lured him back to the fold as chief investment officer.
That same year, Mr. Lee-Chin acquired a bank in Jamaica, his birthplace. It is also the year when redemptions of AIC funds began outstripping sales, sinking the company into a deep, unrelenting slump.
"It's been an interesting time, no question about it," Mr. Wellum says. If he has any second thoughts about rejoining AIC, he certainly isn't letting on. But he knows changes are needed if AIC is going to recover.
Some of these reforms are relatively simple, such as bringing more structure, discipline and consistency to AIC's investment decisions and hiring expertise in portfolio management, research, sales and marketing.
But what is probably Mr. Wellum's most difficult and delicate mission is wresting power from Mr. Lee-Chin, AIC's dominant and high-profile founder, and putting it in the hands of a larger group of motivated and capable executives who will work together to revive the private company.
The perception, right or wrong, is that AIC would be nothing without Mr. Lee-Chin.
In the mid-1990s, when money was pouring into AIC, Mr. Lee-Chin was the public face of the firm. Now that
AIC is hurting, it is battling concerns that Mr. Lee-Chin has lost his touch, or even lost interest.
Critics and competitors point to Mr. Lee-Chin's investment in Jamaica as evidence that he's an absentee leader who is using AIC to fund his other business and philanthropic pursuits.
Mr. Lee-Chin's profile has been a "double-edged sword," Mr. Wellum concedes, but he
" is very much committed to the business." Mr. Wellum said Mr. Lee-Chin spends a week a month in Jamaica, where he owns National Commercial Bank. AIC no longer revolves around one or two people, he said.
"Sometimes we get this criticism that AIC is just Michael Lee-Chin running around with Jonathan Wellum," he said. "That couldn't be further from the truth."
AIC has poached top executives from rival funds to bolster its sales and marketing. It has also assembled a team of 21 research analysts, and brought in new blood to help manage the company's flagship Advantage funds, which focus on financial services. So far, it looks like Mr. Lee-Chin sees the importance of giving people more breathing room.
"We have brought in people who are first-class individuals and, therefore, I have to make sure that they have latitude to act as professionally as their abilities permit them," Mr. Lee-Chin said in an interview. "I am hands-on. I work with them. But at the same time, I have to make sure they have a lot of latitude."
John Miller, a vice-president and portfolio manager at AIC, said the goal is to "make the structure stronger than any one individual, so you don't get -- and I don't mean this as condescending to the boss or anything -- you don't get star managers. You get the process, so it survives in the event somebody leaves or is hit by the proverbial Mac truck."
Mr. Lee-Chin had hired dozens of consultants and other executives, but they didn't have the mandate or the power to make any real changes. AIC was used to winging it, which worked fine when fund sales were turbo-charged. But when AIC fell out of favour, it couldn't marshall its resources to fight back.
"The structure hadn't morphed enough to decentralize. When you bring in top talent, you have to decentralize and then get them to operate in teams," Mr. Wellum said.
So, Mr. Wellum has introduced a system used by all of AIC's analysts and portfolio managers to evaluate current and prospective investments. AIC ranks companies in several areas from management strength to cash flow. A research analyst's evaluation of a stock will be vetted by other analysts and managers who approve new investments. This process has prompted AIC to reduce its portfolio from about 185 companies in 2002 to roughly 115 names today.
Still, Mr. Wellum is fighting the perception that AIC never sells any stocks, a view perpetuated by the company's well-known mantra: Buy. Hold. And Prosper.
In AIC's U.S. equity fund, for instance, 13 of its 20 holdings have been added in the past two years.
But don't expect AIC to start dropping financial services for more popular sectors. And it won't deviate from its philosophy of investing in strong companies for the long term, executives maintain.
"It's difficult because you keep challenging yourself in terms of asking, 'What are we missing?' " Mr. Miller said. "We own businesses that are very profitable and doing very well, yet people want to move over to the Keg Income Fund."
He pointed to research showing that among the 6,000 companies covered by Morningstar Inc., about half didn't make a dime in 2003, yet their stocks gained 117% on average.
"You shake your head," Mr. Miller said. "Do you say, we've changed our approach, we're no longer buying quality businesses, we're switching to the highest-risk businesses with the weakest fundamentals and the weakest balance sheets? It's speculating."
Another source of pain may be AIC's lack of distribution. It owns the Berkshire Group of Companies, which has 1,000 financial advisors, but they aren't paid more to push AIC's funds. The banks and big fund companies use their powerful networks of financial planners and advisors to drive sales.
Like AGF Management Ltd., AIC believes there is still demand for independent fund companies among advisors and brokers. But to gain captive distribution, AIC could partner with a bank or insurance company looking to expand into wealth management.
"I think there is some rationale for that," Mr. Wellum said. "I'm not saying it's going to happen, but it's something we have to remain open to. Michael is a businessman, a very good one, and I think he definitely wants to maintain control of the company. But would it make sense if it were the right partner to do something? I think that's an open question."
Mr. Lee-Chin said the first priority is getting AIC's performance back on track, which will happen when the markets recognize the value of its investments. Better results will ignite sales, so buying distribution isn't needed, he said.
By adding processes and structure, will Mr. Wellum be able to turn things around? Redemptions haven't slowed. Investors who bought AIC in the mid-1990s can sell those funds without charges, so there's no financial incentive to stick around.
Given AIC's struggles, there is much speculation about whether Mr. Lee-Chin would sell AIC, especially if redemptions continue.
Because AIC is privately held, it's difficult to calculate its value. But in 2002, CI Fund Management Inc. bought $13-billion in fund assets from Sun Life Financial Inc. for the equivalent of roughly $650-million. AIC manages about $11.5-billion in assets, so it might fetch $500-million to $700-million. However, estimates of Mr. Lee-Chin's net worth range from $1.6-billion, calculated by Canadian Business magazine last year, to US$2.4-billion in Forbes.
Although the value of AIC is debatable, there's no doubt the company is worth far less than at its peak. In turn, it's unlikely Mr. Lee-Chin would want to sell now. That puts the pressure on Mr. Wellum and his team to produce.
"The market might be off us now, people might not want to invest more money, or they might want to leave," he said. "But ultimately, we have to make people regret leaving."
© National Post 2004
Note: kkalawsky@nationalpost.com
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World’s Oldest Person Might Be from Dominica
Roseau, Dominica, January 2003
Elizabeth Israel celebrated what she said was her 128th birthday in the tiny Caribbean country of Dominica on Monday, a claim that, if true, could make her the oldest living person.
“I am happy for today and I am feeling all right” Israel said at a Mass held in her honor at her home. “I am thankful to the only father I have, God”.
President Vernon Shaw and other government officials attended. While the government and many islanders believe Israel is the oldest living person, her name is still absent from the record books.
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HISTORIC OAS MEETING BRINGS TOGETHER THE AMERICAS AND AFRICA
Organization of American States
www.oas.org
Press Release (E-244-02)
December 11, 2002
Declaring “the ties of Africa and all of Latin America and the Caribbean are obvious,” Grenada’s Ambassador Denis Antoine today emerged from a historic meeting between Organization of American States (OAS) ambassadors and African ambassadors in Washington, stressing the encounter was more than symbolic, but “relevant to the whole issue of linkages” between Africa and the Americas.
Ambassador Antoine, who presided over the special session as Permanent Council Chairman, said the Organization should continue to deepen dialogue that the meeting commenced. He described as “a myth” suggestions of geography and language dividing Africa and the Americas, explaining that during the special Permanent Council meeting the envoys of the continent of Africa and the Western Hemisphere “spoke about the same things: AIDS, poverty, empowerment of women, development, cooperation. We have the same language.”
He cited as one of the “resonating outcomes” of the meeting the participants’ view of the initiative as one “whose time has come and was long overdue.” Antoine also announced that the Organization was processing Nigeria’s application for observer status.
Extending the welcome to the African diplomats—some 30 of them—OAS Assistant Secretary General Luigi Einaudi outlined the Organization’s initiatives on some key issues that were at the center of the exchange—democracy and human rights, cooperation and development and trade.
In his remarks as dean of the corps of African ambassadors in Washington, Djibouti’s Ambassador Roble Ohlaye lauded the “unique initiative” to explore stronger relations to tackle common interests and issues. “Our aim in Africa is to forge mutually beneficial partnerships with a view to be gradually integrated into the global economy,” said the Djibouti diplomat, singling out Africa’s “expanding population, abundant resources and growth potential” as important market prospects for the Western Hemisphere nations.
He pointed to common bonds such as membership in the Commonwealth, Francophone, Hispanic and Lusophone blocs, noting they would help to further strengthen collaboration between the two continents. “Together we must… cooperate in protecting the rights of women, children, refugees and other defenseless people in our respective regions.”
The participants remained very upbeat that the meeting was timely, with several OAS and African diplomats underscoring the need to continue the dialogue launched with today’s meeting, which was the brainchild of the Grenadian ambassador.
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So to speak:
Music, the common language
By Keeble McFarlane
Jamaica Observer, Internet edition
Monday, December 09, 2002
Music is readily understood in all corners of the globe, one with much less political and cultural baggage than the predominant languages. And it's one you don't have to read or speak to understand and enjoy - just hearing it is enough.
We are all, no doubt, familiar with the Biblical story about the Tower of Babel, a project which was ultimately doomed because none of the horde of people building it could understand what the others were saying or tell them what they wanted. In the years since then, there has been a drastic reduction in the number of languages spoken on the earth, and more and more, people are focusing on just a handful to communicate across borders. One, in particular, is already head and shoulders above the rest in its reach and scope. That is, of course, our language, English.
But there's another language which is readily understood in all corners of the globe, one with much less political and cultural baggage than the predominant ones. And it's a language you don't have to read or speak to understand and enjoy - just hearing it is enough. By now you'll probably have guessed that I'm talking about music.
About 15 years ago I spent a month in Papua New Guinea, half of a huge island just north of Australia. I was conducting workshops with local broadcasters on how to improve the production and presentation of their programmes. The visit afforded me the opportunity to play tourist, and that took me up into the highlands, where, incidentally, they grow excellent coffee and tea, relatively new enterprises. On a Sunday evening, half-a-dozen of us were to meet at a hotel in Mount Hagen, capital of one of the highland provinces, for dinner. The hotel was constructed of local materials and designed to look like the rustic traditional houses of the region. The waiters were barefoot, and wore traditional dress, complete with flowers in their hair. The straw-matted walls were adorned with carvings, masks and spears from the various regions of the country. As we were shown to our seats, the public address system played some soft music designed, no doubt, to soothe our souls and lead us to forget, even temporarily, the cares of the day. The music sounded familiar - what was it again? Think. I know that music! Yes - it's . the Romanian pan piper, Zamfir!
A few days later, I travelled with a Canadian aid worker to Goroka, capital of the neighbouring province and home of Papua New Guinea's version of Blue Mountain coffee. (I learned that when the country decided that coffee was a good crop to get into, an enterprising grower had brought in some seedlings from Jamaica and they happily took root.) From Goroka we were to drive back to Mount Hagen and then on to Mendi, capital of yet another province.
As the NGO (non-governmental organisation) fellow and I headed off in a four-wheel-drive Mitsubishi mini-bus, he decided to stop for some cigarettes. The place was a huge warehouse operation which sold everything from shoes to sugar. As we approached the counter, we could hear music pounding out at fairly high volume from a huge ghetto-blaster on a shelf near the cash register. The sounds were unmistakable - the Toots and the Maytals' version of John Denver's Country Roads. How had the world shrunken!
Another place where I came across music crossing boundaries effortlessly was at the Middle Kingdom theme park in Hong Kong a dozen or so years ago. I wandered through this celebration of Chinese history and culture and soon heard a most exquisite sound. It was a young woman playing the Chinese equivalent of a dulcimer. She hammered away at the multiplicity of strings with two mallets made from thin strips of bamboo with rubber or felt wrapped around the tips. I switched on my recording machine to capture the sound of The Swan from The Carnival of the Animals by the French composer, Saint-Saens.
A few years later, a trip to the other end of the Asian continent provided a fascinating example of what we've been talking about. I arrived at the Muscat international airport in Oman at 6:30 in the morning after a red-eye flight from Switzerland. A group of reporters and official guests were in Oman to observe a big celebration in honour of the sultan on his birthday. We came from various countries, and the common link was that we had to pick up our prearranged visas at the airport. Now, remember, Oman is a Muslim country, but not anything like its extremely restrictive neighbour, Saudi Arabia. The first officials we met, who cheerfully presented us with our visas after asking our names in perfect English, were two very pleasant young women wearing smart, distinctive and quite proper uniforms.
And playing, very distinctly over the airport's loudspeakers was a current hit-parade version of, get this: Ave Maria!
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Free trade will enhance economy, freedoms
By GRANT ALDONAS
Undersecretary for international trade at the Department of Commerce.
The Miami Herald Monday, Dec 09, 2002
For 200 years, trade has been an economic engine helping the United States meet the needs of domestic businesses, workers and consumers. Throughout history, we pursued new markets for American goods, services, and technology; sought the import of a greater variety of goods at lower prices; and encouraged competition and a free market economy.
Our efforts have proved fruitful -- leading to sustained economic growth, higher wages, more jobs and a higher standard of living. Over the past three decades, trade has served as the engine of more than one-quarter of domestic economic growth. Some 12 million American jobs -- one in 10 -- depend on exports, and those jobs pay wages that are as much as 18 percent higher than the national average. Unfortunately, many of our neighbors have not been as fortunate.
Despite the benefits of a free market and trade, much of the the Americas has experienced slow progress. Many in the region feel left behind or simply left out. In fact, one-third of the population lives in poverty, and 170 million people survive on less than $2 a day. If current trends continue, in 25 years the population of Western Hemisphere nations will surpass 700 million; yet it is estimated that more than 200 million of those individuals will be poor.
To be serious about fighting poverty, we must be serious about expanding trade -- and about making sure that the new round of global talks and trade commitments live up to their intentions. The United States must ensure that the seeds of global integration find fertile soil and that the benefits of trade and global commerce are broadly shared. President Bush is deeply committed to this mission, particularly with regard to the countries of Latin America.
In 1994, nations of the Western Hemisphere met in Miami and resolved that the Americas are to be guided by the principles of democracy, that sovereignty resides in the people, that basic human rights are to be enjoyed by all, that economic freedom can lift millions out of poverty, and that political and economic freedoms are the instruments of lasting peace. We resolved to work together to put these principles into practice.
I recently visited Miami to reaffirm these commitments. I spoke with Caribbean Latin American Action, an organization promoting private-sector-led economic development in the Caribbean Basin and throughout the hemisphere. We all are committed to breaking down trade barriers and knitting our hemisphere into a region-wide zone of economic opportunity for all.
The United States must be a major contributor to the growth and prosperity of our neighbors. Programs such as the Caribbean Basin Economic Recovery Act, the Andean Trade Promotion and Drug Eradication Act, and the ''Third Border Initiative'' derive directly from this sense of regional responsibility. The administration is also aggressively pursuing regional initiatives that will expand trade and economic growth, including the U.S.-Chile Free Trade Agreement, the U.S.-Mexico Partnership for Prosperity, and discussions toward a U.S.-Central American Free Trade Agreement.
The cornerstone of Bush's Latin American trade policy agenda is the creation of a Free Trade Area of the Americas. The FTAA will be the largest free market in the world, stretching from Canada to Chile, representing more than 800 million people and a combined GDP of more than $13 trillion. Not only will the FTAA promote economic development and democratic governance among our trading partners; it also will strengthen our economy at home -- benefiting American farmers, businesses, workers and consumers.
Furthermore, the United States pledges to assist our neighbors as they prepare their laws and infrastructure for participation in the global economy. We will work to ensure that countries have a functioning legal system, with laws to protect the basic rights of companies and people who want to engage in trade. For some countries, it could be a long journey before reaching this point, but the United States intends to walk this path with them.
As friends and neighbors, the United States and other hemisphere nations are necessarily linked. Development in one nation has a profound impact on the others, and as such, the United States wants every nation to take advantage of trade.
More important, however, nations that exhibit a commitment to trade and to having the necessary infrastructure will achieve results greater than an increasing balance of trade. With a firm embrace of democracy and good government, each will have enabled its citizens to live in a more-prosperous and freer society.
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Jamaican-Born ALVIN CURLING
is Speaker of Ontario
Legislature
November 21, 2003
By Yulanda Gordon, Gleaner Writer
JAMAICAN-BORN ALVIN Curling was on Wednesday elected Speaker of the Ontario Provincial Legislature, becoming the first black Speaker for the province and the second in all of Canada.
Curling, 64, was elected without opposition at the first sitting of the House following the October 2 election of the new Liberal Government headed by Dalton McGuinty.
Addressing the House following the election, Curling said it was an honour to be named Speaker and thanked the people of his Scarborough-Rouge River riding for electing him as their representative. He has been MP for that riding since 1985.
"It's a very important job. I know that this job cannot be done successfully without the full co-operation of the entire House," he said. "I know the responsibility is to be fair and to be disciplined in a manner to make sure that we carry out the duties to the people of Ontario. My job is to make sure that every individual member here gets the opportunity to do so."
OPPOSITION OPPOSED SELECTION
Curling's selection for the post did not find favour with members of the opposition Conservative Party nor the New Democratic Party (NDP) whose seven seats in the legislature are one shy of qualifying it for official party status. NDP leader Howard Hampton and Conservative leader Ernie Eves complained that the selection of Curling, who had been publicly endorsed by McGuinty, harkened back to the days when the Premier selected the Speaker. The post became an elected one in 1993.
"We may as well change the rules back again to where the Premier just gets to appoint the Speaker," Hampton said. Opposition members stalled the election by nominating a total of 11 ruling MPs all of whom declined before Curling was elected by acclamation.
Curling has served as Minister of Housing and Skills Development under a previous Liberal government. He gained notoriety in December of 1995 when, during a contentious debate of a controversial Conservative bill, he refused to leave the legislative chamber when he was ordered to do so by the then Speaker.
Curling, then an opposition member, staged an 18-hour overnight sit-in to protest against the bill. Liberal colleagues supplied him with blankets and pizza and he reportedly relieved himself in a bottle. He was subsequently barred temporarily from the Chamber but the bill was subjected to public hearings.
In 1994 Louisiana-born Emery Barnes was the first Black man to be named Speaker of the British Columbia Parliament.
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Pauline
Ford-Caesar New Project Manager to Jamaica for UNITRANSFER
HOLLYWOOD, FL. November 24, 2003 Unitransfer USA, Inc. has announced the addition of Ms. Pauline J. Ford-Caesar as their new Project Manager to Jamaica, with specific responsibility for assisting Unitransfer with the launch of their money transfer services to the Jamaican community in the United States and Canada by December 2003.
Ms. Ford-Caesar, a Jamaican and the recipient of the 1995 Southern Public Relations Federation Lantern Award for Excellence in Public Relations, brings extensive experience in field of Communications and Community Development.
According to company President, Jean-Claude Saliba: “Ms Ford-Caesar has an established reputation in the Caribbean community and we are pleased to have her as part of our team to assist us with this
venture.”
The decision to expand into the Jamaican market follows on the heels of Unitransfer’s very successful Haitian campaign began in 1999. Ms. Ford-Caesar’s appointment is the latest in a series of strategic moves on the part of Unitransfer, the first being the establishment of a relationship with City of Kingston Cooperative Credit Union (COK) as their paying agent. COK is the largest Credit Union in Jamaica and in the Caribbean and maintains a comprehensive network of over 50-payment outlets island wide, to include local post offices, other credit unions and Singer stores.
Commenting on these local affiliations Mr. Dennis Hickey, Marketingand Public Relations Manager for City of Kingston Cooperative Credit Union stated: “These relationships work well for our customers because it expands COK’s capability to provide them with convenient, reliable access to their funds without having to travel great distances.”
Ford-Caesar will be working closely with her counterpart at COK in Jamaica, in implementing what Unitransfer describes as “The most important aspect of the campaign,” to introduce the service while gaining the trust and confidence of the community.
According to Ford-Caesar, “Jamaicans have an established track record of providing monetary support for family members back home in the Caribbean. We are confident that given Unitransfer’s history and the outstanding reputation of our paying agent City of Kingston Cooperative Credit Union, our customers will be assured their hard earned money will be transferred to family members in a safe, reliable, cost effective manner.”
Unitransfer is licensed by the banking department of the states of Florida, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Georgia and
Maryland.
Contact: Jean-Claude Saliba 954-628-0022
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About Dow Theory Letters and its editor-publisher,
Richard Russell.
Richard Russell began publishing Dow Theory Letters in 1958, and he has been writing the Letters ever since (never once having skipped a Letter). Dow Theory Letters is the oldest service continuously written by one person in the business.
Russell gained wide recognition via a series of over 30 Dow Theory and technical articles that he wrote for Barron's during the late-'50s through the '90s. Through Barron's and via word of mouth, he gained a wide following. Russell was the first (in 1960) to recommend gold stocks. He called the top of the 1949-'66 bull market. And almost to the day he called the bottom of the great 1972-'74 bear market, and the beginning of the great bull market which started in December 1974.
The Letters, published every three weeks, cover the US stock market, foreign markets, bonds, precious metals, commodities, economics --plus Russell's widely-followed comments and observations and stock market philosophy.
In 1989 Russell took over Julian Snyder's well-known advisory service, "International Moneyline", a service which Mr. Synder ran from Switzerland. Then, in 1998 Russell took over the Zweig Forecast from famed market analyst, Martin Zweig. Russell has written articles and been quoted in such publications as Bloomberg magazine, Barron's, Time, Newsweek, Money Magazine, the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, Reuters, and others. Subscribers to Dow Theory Letters number over 7,000, hailing from all 50 states and dozens of overseas counties.
A native New Yorker (born in 1924) Russell has lived through depressions and booms, through good times and bad, through war and peace. He was educated at Rutgers and received his BA at NYU. Russell flew as a combat bombardier on B-25 Mitchell Bombers with the 12th Air Force during World War II.
One of the favorite features of the Letter is Russell's daily Primary Trend Index (PTI), which is a proprietary index which has been included in the Letters since 1971. The PTI has been an amazingly accurate and useful guide to the trend of the market, and it often actually differs with Russell's opinions. But Russell always defers to his PTI. Says Russell, "The PTI is a lot smarter than I am. It's a great ego-deflator, as far as I'm concerned, and I've learned never to fight it."
VISIT http://www.dowtheoryletters.com/dtlol.nsf
FOR FURTHER DETAILS & FULL DATA
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Mass Nude
Wedding at Hedonism III - Jamaica
Gleaner: Saturday | February 15, 2003
Norman Grindley/Staff Photographer
Devon Evans, Freelance Writer
OCHO RIOS:
Some of the 29 couples, all in the buff, who were involved in another round of nude nuptials at the Hedonism III resort, Runaway Bay, St. Ann, yesterday. The event comes just two years after the world's largest nude wedding was conducted at the same location.
JAMAICA'S TOURIST industry is set to find a place in the Guinness Book of World Records soon, following yesterday's Valentine's Day mass nude wedding at Hedonism III Resort in Runaway Bay, St. Ann.
Twenty nine nude couples tied the knot, the largest number since the event was started here three years ago.
The couples, including a Russian, a Canadian and an American Indian from the Crow Tribe, exchanged wedding vows at an hour-long ceremony held on the lawns, near the hotel's nude beach.
The Rev. Frank Cervasio of the Universal Life Church in Florida conducted the colourful, yet unusual wedding ceremony. It was witnessed by scores of hotel guests, some also nude, and members of staff as well as members of both the local and foreign press.
Rev. Cervasio, who is also the head of a nudist organisation in Florida, has been conducting nude weddings all over the United States and he agreed that this year's ceremony could well be a world record, because he has no knowledge of any other nude weddings with as many as 29 couples.
Officials of the Guinness Book of World Records are expected to evaluate today's ceremony and to see if it warrants being added to its list of world records, Hedonism 111 officials said.
There were screams of approval from the fair-sized gathering, when Rev. Cervasio declared the couples man and wife. The minister's only regret was that he wasn't among the newly weds.
But, for Native American Indian Jack Rooney, better known in his native Texas by his Indian name, Two Bears, it was one of the happiest times in his life. "My wife Lisa and I are very elated to be part of this wonderful ceremony," he told The Gleaner in an interview. Rooney, who is visiting Jamaica for the second time, said he has never met a nicer set of people than those whom he came in contact at Hedonism III.
This is the third consecutive year of nude weddings at the SuperClubs Hedonism III property and Rev. Cervasio has officiated at all three ceremonies. Last year, 11 couples participated in the wedding ceremony. With the growing support for the event amongst nudist in the United States and other countries, SuperClubs vice president, Zein Nakash, said nude weddings will continue to be a feature of the hotel's promotional activities.
"This event has been creating many positives for the hotel's wedding programme and Jamaica's tourism is benefiting a lot from the wide overseas exposure," Mrs. Nakash said.
The ceremony ended with Afro-Tech Steel band playing a version of Bob Marley's hit song "One Love".
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Queen Nanny Heroine of a Nation!
Thursday, March 6 at 7:00 p.m.
The Connecticut Historical Society
1 Elizabeth Street
Hartford, CT 06105
Feminist studies and ethnographic specialist Karla Gottlieb will discuss the
cultural, military and religious importance of Queen Nanny, the subject of
her book Mother of us All: A History of Queen Nanny, Leader of the Windward
Jamaican Maroons. This book marks an attempt to integrate a key figure of
New World history into her rightful place as the leader of a critical
resistance movement in Jamaica in the first part of the 18th century.
Sponsored in partnership with the University of Hartford's African-American
Studies Program. Admission. Board Room. Please call (860) 236-5621, x238 to
reserve seating.
Hope you can make it!
Amy Sailor,
Adult & Family Program Developer
The Connecticut Historical Society
1 Elizabeth Street,
Hartford, CT 06105
860.236.5621, ext.224
860.236.2664 (fax) amy_sailor@chs.org
www.chs.org
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Bear Stearns sees encouraging signs from Jamaican economy
published: Sunday Gleaner| July 13, 2003
Al Edwards, Business Co-ordinator
INTERNATIONAL CREDIT research house Bear Stearns continues to see encouraging signs from the Jamaican economy as it attempts to extricate itself from a sizeable deficit and looks to balance its budget by 2006.
In May, the country's fiscal accounts performed $2.95 billion better than budgeted for the month of April and the Government's efforts to bolster the local dollar was lauded by Bear Stearns' Senior Managing Director, Gregory Fisher.
He observed that "Things continue to get a bit better each day. Better currency...lower rates... more liquidity...improving economic numbers... all things that we have been waiting to see for quite some time."
Last week, senior managing director for emerging markets at Bear Stearns, Carl Ross, observed: "The news out of Jamaica continues to be supportive of near term stability in the credit. The budget continues to show good results, although it looks as though tax revenues in June will have tapered off from the much-better-than-expected April and May figures.
"Expenditures are also holding the line nicely, including most categories of current spending, as well as capital spending. The budget results are outperforming the expected budget by J$5.8 billion for the first three months of the fiscal year. This is significant. The original deficit target for FY03/04 was J$24 billion.
"If the government can generate a positive fiscal surprise this year it would be a departure from the recent past and a big boost to financial market confidence.
"The government is saying that real GDP growth in the second quarter was three per cent. This is in line with the first quarter and significantly higher than the recent trend.
"Tourism arrivals have been showing a good trend all year and continued to post good numbers in April and May, rising 17 per cent. Cruise ship arrivals account for a large part of the increase, but, despite this, the Bank of Jamaica estimates that foreign exchange earnings from tourism are up 10 per cent for the year-to-date over last year.
"All of the above have helped to stabilise the J$ at 58-59 per US$ and, on the back of this, the BOJ announced another cut in its policy rates this week 200 bp in its nine-month and 12-month maturities.
"This is the second cut in two weeks. At nearly 30 per cent, interest rates are still too high for growth and budgetary stability, but the trend is the correct one.
"As long as these current trends are maintained, and we see nothing on the near term horizon to jeopardize the trend, the muddle through scenario is intact. For this reason, we are currently recommending Jamaican bonds as a speculative but high yielding EM asset."
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The Perfect Business
AH PERFECTION: Strange, but the most popular, the most widely-requested, and the most widely quoted piece I've ever written was not about the stock market -- it was about business, and specifically about what I call the theoretical "ideal business." I first published this piece in the early-1970s. I repeated it in Letter 881 and then again in Letter 982. I've added a few thoughts in each successive edition. But seldom does a month go by when I don't get requests from subscribers or from some publication or corporation to republish "the ideal business." So here it is again -- with a few added comments.
I once asked a friend, a prominent New York corporate lawyer, "Dave, in all your years of experience, what was the single best business you've ever come across?" Without hesitation, Dave answered, "I have a client whose sole business is manufacturing a chemical that is critical in making synthetic rubber. This chemical is used in very small quantities in rubber manufacturing, but it is absolutely essential and can be used in only super-refined form.
"My client is the only one who manufactures this chemical. He therefore owns a virtual monopoly since this chemical is extremely difficult to manufacture and not enough of it is used to warrant another company competing with him. Furthermore, since the rubber companies need only small quantities of this chemical, they don't particularly care what they pay for it -- as long as it meets their very demanding specifications. My client is a millionaire many times over, and his business is the best I've ever come across." I was fascinated by the lawyer's story, and I never forgot it.
When I was a young man and just out of college my father gave me a few words of advice. Dad had loads of experience; he had been in the paper manufacturing business; he had been assistant to Mr. Sam Bloomingdale (of Bloomingdale's Department store); he had been in construction (he was a civil engineer); and he was also an expert in real estate management.
Here's what my dad told me: "Richard, stay out of the retail business. The hours are too long, and you're dealing with every darn variable under the sun. Stay out of real estate; when hard times arrive real estate comes to a dead stop and then it collapses. Furthermore, real estate is illiquid. When the collapse comes, you can't unload. Get into manufacturing; make something people can use. And make something that you can sell to the world. But Richard, my boy, if you're really serious about making money, get into the money business. It's clean, you can use your brains, you can get rid of your inventory and your mistakes in 30 seconds, and your product, money, never goes out of fashion."
So much for my father's wisdom (which was obviously tainted by the Great Depression). But Dad was a very wise man. For my own part, I've been in a number of businesses -- from textile designing to advertising to book publishing to owning a night club to the investment advisory business.
It's said that every business needs (1) a dreamer, (2) a businessman, and (3) a S.O.B. Well, I don't know about number 3, but most successful businesses do have a number 3 or all too often they seem to have a combined number 2 and number 3.
Bill Gates is known as "America's richest man." Bully for Billy. But do you know what Gates' biggest coup was? When Gates was dealing with IBM, Big Blue needed an operating system for their computer. Gates didn't have one, but he knew where to find one. A little outfit in Seattle had one. Gates bought the system for a mere $50,000 and presented it to IBM. That was the beginning of Microsoft's rise to power. Lesson: It's not enough to have the product, you have to know and understand your market. Gates didn't have the product, but he knew the market -- and he knew where to acquire the product.
Apple had by far the best product in the Mac. But Apple made a monumental mistake. They refused to license ALL PC manufacturers to use the Mac operating system. If they had, Apple today could be Microsoft, and Gates would still be trying to come out with something useful (the fact is Microsoft has been a follower and a great marketer, not an innovator). "Find a need and fill it," runs the old adage. Maybe today they should change that to, "Dream up a need and fill it." That's what has happened in the world of computers. And it will happen again and again.
All right, let's return to that wonderful world of perfection. I spent a lot of time and thought in working up the criteria for what I've termed the IDEAL BUSINESS. Now obviously, the ideal business doesn't exist and probably never will. But if you're about to start a business or join someone else's business or if you want to buy a business, the following list may help you. The more of these criteria that you can apply to your new business or new job, the better off you'll be.
(1) The ideal business sells the world, rather than a single neighborhood or even a single city or state. In other words, it has an unlimited global market (and today this is more important than ever, since world markets have now opened up to an extent unparalleled in my lifetime). By the way, how many times have you seen a retail store that has been doing well for years -- then another bigger and better retail store moves nearby, and it's kaput for the first store.
(2) The ideal business offers a product which enjoys an "inelastic" demand. Inelastic refers to a product that people need or desire -- almost regardless of price.
(3) The ideal business sells a product which cannot be easily substituted or copied. This means that the product is an original or at least it's something that can be copyrighted or patented.
(4) The ideal business has minimal labor requirements (the fewer personnel, the better). Today's example of this is the much-talked about "virtual corporation." The virtual corporation may consist of an office with three executives, where literally all manufacturing and services are farmed out to other companies.
(5) The ideal business enjoys low overhead. It does not need an expensive location; it does not need large amounts of electricity, advertising, legal advice, high-priced employees, large inventory, etc.
(6) The ideal business does not require big cash outlays or major investments in equipment. In other words, it does not tie up your capital (incidentally, one of the major reasons for new-business failure is under-capitalization).
(7) The ideal business enjoys cash billings. In other words, it does not tie up your capital with lengthy or complex credit terms.
(8) The ideal business is relatively free of all kinds of government and industry regulations and strictures (and if you're now in your own business, you most definitely know what I mean with this one).
(9) The ideal business is portable or easily moveable. This means that you can take your business (and yourself) anywhere you want -- Nevada, Florida, Texas, Washington, S. Dakota (none have state income taxes) or hey, maybe even Monte Carlo or Switzerland or the south of France.
(10) Here's a crucial one that's often overlooked; the ideal business satisfies your intellectual (and often emotional) needs. There's nothing like being fascinated with what you're doing. When that happens, you're not working, you're having fun.
(11) The ideal business leaves you with free time. In other words, it doesn't require your labor and attention 12, 16 or 18 hours a day (my lawyer wife, who leaves the house at 6:30 AM and comes home at 6:30 PM and often later, has been well aware of this one).
(12) Super-important: the ideal business is one in which your income is not limited by your personal output (lawyers and doctors have this problem). No, in the ideal business you can sell 10,000 customers as easily as you sell one (publishing is an example).
That's it. If you use this list it may help you cut through a lot of nonsense and hypocrisy and wishes and dreams regarding what you are looking for in life and in your work. None of us own or work at the ideal business. But it's helpful knowing what we're looking for and dealing with. As a buddy of mine once put it, "I can't lay an egg and I can't cook, but I know what a great omelet looks like and tastes like."
For general info regarding subscriptions and signup please contact Dow Theory Letters.
For subscription issues, e-mail staff@dowtheoryletters.com
Correspondence may be mailed to Mr. Russell at PO Box 1759, La Jolla, CA 92038.
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UWI
Scientists find anti-worm remedy
January 23, 2003
By Eulalee Thompson, Staff Reporter, Jamaica Gleaner
UNIVERSITY OF the West Indies (UWI) scientists have isolated a chemical compound in a common Jamaican plant, Spirit Weed, which has tested as a potent anti-worm treatment in people and animals.
The potent agent, which the scientists are nicknaming eryngial, effectively treats threadworms (Strongyloides stercoralis), a very common intestinal worm in Jamaica and in other parts of the world, which is associated with ill-health and mortality.
"We already have some data from the World Health Organisation (WHO) indicating that the drug (the isolated compound) appears to be safe against mammalian tissues, in other words, the level of toxicity is low. This is good news because we wouldn't want to be creating a drug that acts against worms but is harmful in other ways," said Dr. Ralph Robinson, Head of Department of Life Sciences and one of the scientists involved in the discovery.
The scientists have received 'Letters Patent' as inventors of the new medical substance, the first successful patent application wholly undertaken and forwarded by the UWI's academic staff and research students. The invention met the patent criteria of being novel, unobvious and capable of application and was executed with assistance from the UWI's Office of Sponsored Research.
This local patent provides international protection of the invention for one year; the scientists have the option to take out other patents that offer 10 to 15 years protection.
Dr. Robinson, a parasitologist, started the research on Spirit Weed (Eryngium foetidum) about 10 years ago, in 1992, as he supervised a graduate student, Dr. Wayne Forbes in his PhD thesis. Dr. Forbes, currently a post-doctoral Research Fellow at the University of Pennsylvannia, School of Veterinary Science, had developed an interest in the medicinal properties of Jamaican herbs.
Though Dr. Robinson's speciality is parasitology, he worked with his graduate student for years, screening extracts of about 25 medicinal plants which had earned reputations in Jamaican folklore as effective anti-worm concoctions. Spirit Weed came up the winner, acting against threadworms, the test organism in the research project.
The third scientist involved in the research, Professor Paul Reese from the Department of Chemistry, was asked to join the team when the two researchers decided to move from crude analysis to more refined chemical analysis using Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) technology in the chemistry laboratory.
Dr. Reese said that eryngial, under controlled laboratory studies, is proving to be more potent as an anti-threadworm agent than the commercially-available anti-worm medicines. With more funding the scientists would like to take the research to the next stage -- to investigate the mode of activity of the active ingredient, that is, to identify how it acts against the threadworms. They will also have to involve, down the line, medical scientists to identify safe and effective concentration and dosage levels before the medicine can become commercially available.
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SBA SALUTES
ANTIGUAN BORN HARLAND HENRY -2003 Minority Small Business Advocate of the Year.
March 18, 2003
The U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) Connecticut District Office announced Harland Henry of Middletown as the recipient of one of the SBA’s most prestigious awards. Henry, Director of Community Outreach for Secretary of the State Susan Bysiewicz, has been named 2003 Minority Small Business Advocate of the Year.
“The SBA Minority Small Business Advocate Award honors the best small business has to offer and Harland Henry is an outstanding choice,” said SBA District Director Marie Record. “This is a testimonial, not only to his accomplishments, but to his commitment and dedication to small business success and community service.”
Upon joining the Secretary of the State’s office in 1999 Henry created and designed the Small & Minority Business Showcase concept. This program gives small businesses in Connecticut the opportunity to network with lenders and government agencies as well as exhibit their products and services to a wide audience. Prior to working for the Secretary of the State, Henry had a career in business banking on Wall Street and with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
“The small business showcases, seminars, forums and workshops would not have been possible without Harland’s commitment,” said Secretary Bysiewicz. “His tireless enthusiasm to assist and support the small business community has helped make the Secretary of the State’s office an important resource for sustaining economic growth in Connecticut.”
The SBA will hold a celebration in the Spring honoring local recipients, and celebrating SBA’s 50th anniversary culminating in a White House conference on Small Business in 2004.
Harland Henry is an executive assistant to the Connecticut Secretary of the State. He is the Director of Community Outreach and Business Development. He joined the Secretary of the State's Office in January 1999 under the leadership of Secretary of the State Susan Bysiewicz. Harland is a citizen of the United States and was born in the Caribbean island of Antigua.
Professional Activity
His professional background is in banking and customer relations. He has had a long career in business banking from Wall Street to bank liquidation with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC).
Harland specializes in business event planning and has successfully organized several professional programs and events for various committees and organizations. In 1999 he created and designed the Small & Minority Business Showcase concept for the Connecticut Secretary of the State’s Office. The Showcase is a program designed for small and micro businesses within Connecticut’s cities to exhibit their products and services to a wide audience under one roof. The participating businesses in turn gain access to state and federal resources as well as networking opportunities with banking officials. In planning and organizing the Showcases, he has been able to unify the efforts of many state agencies in their development of small businesses. In addition to the Showcases, he has planned and coordinated several business seminars, forums and workshops focusing on Connecticut’s inner cities.
Community Activity
He is a member of several statewide organizations and serves on the board of the Connecticut Main Street Center, World Affairs Council and a member of the board of the Middlesex County Habitat for Humanity and chairman of the chapter’s Nominating Committee. He is also a member of the Leadership Greater Hartford’s Quest Class of 2003. Harland resides in Middletown, Connecticut and serves on the Middletown Citizen’s Advisory Committee. He also works closely with several Connecticut Caribbean organizations.
Education
Harland attended the Antigua Grammar School and holds an Associates degree in Business Management and a Bachelors degree in Business Administration as well as academic certificates in Hospitality and Customer Service.
Hobbies
In his spare time, Harland is a woodcrafter and designs several miniature articles from wood and coconut shells. As a former athlete, he keeps fit by cycling and playing badminton.
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PUP Wins Historic Re-Election in Belize
06 Mar 2003
The People's United Party has won the majority of seats in Belize's parliament to claim an historic re-election victory.
Leader of the party, Prime Minister Said Musa, declared victory Thursday over the rival United Democratic Party (UDP).
Belize's elections office reported Thursday, that Mr. Musa's People's United Party (PUP), won 22 seats in parliament. The challenger UDP won the remaining seven.
The results marked the first time a party won re-election since the Caribbean nation gained independence from Britain 22 years ago. The two leading parties have consistently alternated terms in office.
During the last elections in 1998, the PUP won a landslide victory of 26 seats.
Belize is in Central America but is a member of the Caribbean Community.
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Focus on Pan-Africanism
By Grenville Phillips
The Barbados Advocate, Wed Jan 22, 2003
PAN-AFRICANISM is essentially the promotion of a united African continent for, inter alia, the economic and cultural benefit of those in Africa, and the descendants of those scattered by the transatlantic slave trade. One laudable vision by a noted pan-Africanist was for a United States of Africa.
Pan-Africanism appeared to have its genesis with persons who had witnessed the abolition of slavery, not through mass rebellion, but rather through the prayers and the actions of men and women who claimed to have a personal relationship with God. Two of the leading figures in the development of pan-Africanist thought in the 19th century were Alexander Crummell (1822-1898) and Edward Blyden (1832-1912).
Both of these men left their native USA and Virgin Islands respectively and resided in Africa for decades. During their stay, they identified a major threat to the creation of a powerful united African continent as African spiritism and idolatry. These men encouraged Africans and persons of African descent everywhere to reject African spiritism, and pursue a relationship with God through the Lord Jesus Christ. African spiritism is essentially the summoning of ancestral spirits to provide guidance.
Why were these early pan-Africanists so insistent that spiritism be rejected? Why not allow a mixture of Christianity and spiritism like in Haiti? It seems that there were three principle scriptural reasons. First, mankind is incapable of summoning ancestral spirits, but are deceived into summoning demons who have no beneficial interest in mankind. Secondly, God Himself explicitly states that: He is the only living God, He will not share His glory with anyone or anything, and any attempt at worshipping Him and anything else is a rejection of Him akin to adultery. Thirdly, God’s response to a nation worshipping Him and others was generally to remove His protection from the land and economy, leaving the land vulnerable to natural hazards, and the economy vulnerable to that nation’s enemies.
African governments generally rejected Crummell’s and Blakes’s warnings. Corrupt political leaders, imperialist minded nations, and greedy trans-national corporations have all taken full advantage of the unprotected state of those African economies. Such countries are characterised today as being: disunited, politically unstable, debt-ridden, exploited, poverty-stricken, and oppressed. However they comprise the most valuable land and mineral resources in the world.
The main African beneficiaries in the countries that have adopted spiritism appear to have been the political leaders, and their family and friends have amassed millions and, in some cases, billions of dollars from alleged corrupt practices. In contrast, the general population of these countries have suffered from: war, terror, genocide, crime, misery, poverty, inflation, illiteracy, hunger, disease, unemployment, famine, drought, floods, disillusionment, and corrupt and incompetent governments that have mortgaged their children’s future with a crippling debt burden.
The political leadership considers anyone willing to speak the truth a threat to their survival, and any dissent is typically met with persecution, merciless torture and even death. The modern African continental experience is a mirror into which we all can look if we choose, as a nation, to reject God’s guidance and protection.
If developing countries wish to reject God’s guidance and protection, then it is necessary that legal instruments be first established, to protect their economies from its enemies. The US has a system to restrict the power and spending desires of its president. Developing countries generally have no such system and are thus vulnerable to politicians driven by power and greed.
We have been fortunate to have generations of Christians who have faithfully worshipped God and have asked Him to bless Barbados. Whether we believe it or not, we are the grateful or ungrateful beneficiaries of their prayers. Our responsible response should be to ensure that our children and grandchildren enjoy similar blessings. However, despite the warnings of the early pan-Africanists, and the apparent consequences, the promotion of African spiritism at some national events is alarming.
If we, as a nation, wish to reject God’s guidance and protection, then all citizens are advised to brace themselves for the terrible consequences. As for me and my house, we will serve the Lord.
(Grenville Phillips II is a Civil Engineer.)
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Call for Anti-Terrorism laws
in Bahamas
By Lindsay Thompson (lindsay@nasguard.com)
The Nassau Guardian Business Editor
Nassau, Bahamas. January 23, 2003
It is urgent that The Bahamas adopt anti-terrorism laws, to empower law-enforcement to crack down on financial counterfeiting, smuggling and money-laundering, says Brian Moree.
The chairman of the Financial Services Consultative Forum said during a press briefing on the mandate of the 33-member forum that The Bahamas is one of few jurisdictions without an anti-terrorism law, and that such measures "would be on our top list."
The attorney, who said Monday, "We have been asked to get through the Forum as quickly as possible," also said that the Government-appointed Forum will still review the entire Bill, specifically those provisions that encroach on privacy rights.
"We want to make sure that it strikes the right balance between national security and private rights," Mr. Moree said. "We also have to benchmark it against similar pieces of legislation in other countries."
He said the forum will consult local and Washington based experts on legislation to make sure it is fully aware of the relevant issues.
Last October, U.S. President George W. Bush signed into law the Patriot Act, anti-terrorism legislation, a year after the terrorist attacks on the United States.
The legislation also gives intelligence operations and criminal operations the chance to operate not on separate tracks, but to share vital information necessary to stop a terrorist attack.
The Bush Administration also pointed out surveillance of communications as another essential tool to pursue and stop terrorists.
The existing law was written in the era of rotary telephones but the new law will allow surveillance of all communications used by terrorists, including e-mails, the Internet, and cell phones.
The new and harsh penalties also make it easier for officials to seize the assets of groups and individuals involved in terrorism.
Also last October, the Government of Canada introduced its Anti-Terrorism Act, which takes aim at terrorist organisations and strengthens investigation, prosecution and prevention of terrorist activities in Canada and abroad.
The Canadian Anti-Terrorism Plan has four objectives:
* stop terrorists from getting into Canada and protect Canadians from terrorist acts;
* bring forward tools to identify, prosecute, convict and punish terrorists;
* prevent the Canada-US border from being held hostage by terrorists and impacting on the Canadian economy; and
* work with the international community to bring terrorists to justice and address the root causes of such hatred.
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Safe-haven
Currencies
LONDON, (AFP) - Investors nervous about a possible war in Iraq and the impact on the US economy are shunning the dollar in favour of "safe-haven" currencies less exposed to geopolitical tensions.
Commerzbank chief forex strategist Nick Parsons says four currencies stand out from the crowd as providing a relatively safe option for investors:
The Norwegian Krone
The Swiss Franc
The Euro
The Yen
"These are all currencies which are less involved politically (in international tensions and) have got strong current account surpluses.
"They are countries which are not reliant on foreign capital inflows," said Parsons.
While currencies backed by big current account surpluses have performed strongly, countries with big deficits such as the United States and Britain have seen their currencies struggle.
Since the start of 2003, the Norwegian krone has risen by 1.7 percent against the dollar, having already rallied strongly in 2002.
Also against the US unit, the Canadian dollar has firmed by 2.6 percent, the euro by 1.6 percent, the Swiss franc by 1.1 percent and the yen by 1.0 percent.
The British pound meanwhile has fallen by 1.9 percent against the euro.
"The krone has been the best performer because as well as the current account surplus, it has got high interest rates (6.5 percent), and on top of that it is obviously a petro-currency," said Parsons.
Norway is the third biggest oil exporter in the world behind Saudi Arabia and Russia.
A strike in Venezuela that has crippled crude exports and the threat of a war in Iraq have sent oil prices soaring, boosting the krone.
The United States meanwhile is facing a costly military campaign in Iraq, which would likely add to the US budget deficit.
Any war in Iraq, which is sitting on the second largest proven oil reserves in the world, would also likely send oil prices spiraling higher in the short term, inflicting further pain on the United States, the world's biggest oil consumer.
Another currency benefiting from safe-haven flows is the Canadian dollar, "It is much less exposed to geopolitics than the dollar and is also a very good candidate for the status of a safe-haven currency," says Audrey Childe-Freeman, economist at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce.
Like the Norwegian krone, analysts say Canada's unit benefits from the country's relatively high interest rates. Its main lending rate is 2.75 percent compared with just 1.25 percent in the United States.
The Canadian dollar could be left exposed because Canada's economy is heavily dependent on trade with the United States -- a key target for terrorists -- while three quarters of its population live within 62 miles of the US border.
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Extracts from Richards Remarks-
November 24, 2003
New policy on Iraq. Transfer political control in Iraq to the Iraqis by June. After June, US troops to remain in Iraq only at the invitation of the new Iraqi government. The problem -- too many American body bags. Bush and the neo-conservatives, it seems, can't impose a "made in America" model on Iraq.
So how long will the troops remain in Iraq? It's unclear. What is clear is that the new policy of using 500 pound bombs against suspected Al
Queda enclaves is causing too many innocent Iraqi casualties. Yesterday's mob killing and mutilating of two US soldiers suggests that the tide of "welcome Americans" is changing to "We've had enough -- get the hell out, Americans, we hate you."
With Bush's ratings dropping below 50%, the changes are coming. Re-election -- it
conquers all and supercedes everything.
Ah those valuations. One of the best analysts in the business, Dr. John Hussman (www.hussmanfunds.com) uses an excellent system for gauging valuations. He uses a multiple of peak earnings on the S&P. At present, the S&P is selling at 20 times peak or record earnings.
The only other times when this has occurred was during 1929, 1972, and 1987, with the single exception of the year 2000 when 20 times peak earnings was actually surpassed.
Measured peak to peak, stock earnings have never grown faster that 6% annually. Now let's just suppose that stocks can remains at 20 times peak earnings for year after year -- earnings up 6% each year. Hussman then adds the 1.7% average yield on the S&P and you get a perpetual total return of 7.7%. Of course, the rate of earnings will probably not continue at 6%, but that seems to be what today's market is thinking about -- and pricing in.
Historically, states Hussman, once stocks reach 20 times peak earnings, some time in the next four to 17 years stocks have always declined to low level valuations. These "low level valuations," of course, correspond to Dow Theory bear market lows. In the past we have seen the S&P sell as low of 5-7 times earnings.
Since stocks are now selling at extremes of high valuations, my thinking is that the final bear market low for this primary bear market will ultimately take stocks to shocking lows -- lower than anyone thinks possible at this time.
Of course, the real question is how the stock market will reach those lows and when. Ah, those are the two great unknowns -- HOW and WHEN.
Right now I believe that common stock values are in "never-never land." This is strictly a traders market, and the upside today is a function of --
Massive liquidity and ultra-low short rates,
Extraordinary, stubborn optimism on the part of investors,
Persistent denial regarding US deficits,
The willingness of US consumers to continue spending while at the same time failing to save.
And critically important -- the willingness of our overseas "suppliers" to continue accepting fiat dollars for their merchandise and services.
Over the long run (say the next 10 to 20 years), I believe investors will be doomed to lose money in the stock market. I base that on current high valuations, the continuing US budget and current account deficits, the unsustainability of those twin deficits -- and the unraveling of the dollar over time.
Even as I write, Congress is in the process of voting on the new Medicare bill. If passed, this bill will add $400 billion to the US budget over the next ten years. There are a few brave dissenters in Congress regarding the bill. For instance, Senator John McCain (R-Ariz.) said yesterday, "My viewpoint is, here we are, a nation with a half-trillion dollar deficit coming up, multi-trillion-dollar deficits, growth of government up 12.5% last
year.
What ever happened to my party's fiscal discipline?"
I can answer the question of what happened to fiscal discipline on the part of both the Democrats and the Republicans. There is NO discipline. These people aren't worried about the next generation, my kids and your kids -- no, they're worried about the next election and how to keep the voters happy.
What this administration and what this Congress is doing to this nation is almost incredible. They're sinking the nation into forthcoming decades of fiscal problems. I've said this before but I want to repeat it. If you run up your own debts, that's permissible and it's your own problem. But running up debts and deficits for future generations to face is immoral -- and it creates very bad karma. In my opinion, this generation will pay dearly for its bad karma. And ultimately, public anger will be directed at the politicians who did, and will do, anything no matter how outrageous -- for votes.
Newer subscribers may wonder what my overall outlook for investing is. Since I've found over the years that the average subscriber does not do well with trading, I've adopted the course of suggesting that my subscribers basically stay with the primary trend of the market.
Very succinctly, the primary trend for common stocks and bonds is bearish. The primary trend for commodities and gold is bullish.
I've written many times that the most difficult task in investing is to stay invested with the primary trend. On this basis, that means staying out of stocks and being in commodities and more specifically being in gold and gold shares.
Some analysts (and many gold detractors) claim that "gold is just another commodity." My position is that gold is money, but during certain periods, gold is treated at a commodity (this was true during 1980 to 1999).
The world has changed over recent years. The US, for the first time in the memory of anyone living, is now dealing with a relatively free global economy. This means that US workers (including white collar workers) are competing with a giant Asian population that is willing to work for wages as low as 50 cents an hour with no benefits.
The result is that millions of US jobs have been exported to overseas. How, I ask myself, is this incredibly wide span in wages going to be solved? Surprise, I don't have the answer. But the US government's answer, so far, is to put up tariffs and restrictions in various areas such as textiles, lingerie, steel, lumber. This will not work, and if this US policy continues (it's all political, of course) the US will find itself in a trade war with both Europe and Asia.
To get back to whether gold is a commodity or not, let's examine the evidence. The chart below shows the gold action since the year 2000. We see that in 2001 gold turned bullish, breaking out of a huge "head-and-shoulders" bottom and rising to the 388 box. From there gold consolidated, and in November (B on the chart) gold backed off, then broke out to new highs at the 400 box.
The next chart shows gold vs. the CRB Commodity Index. If gold was simply a commodity, it would be rising about at the same rate as commodities are rising. This is not the case. Note that gold is now rising above the blue bullish
trend line. Thus, gold is now outperforming the commodity index. Why is this happening? It's happening because gold is now acting like a currency, not a commodity.
Not only is gold acting as a currency, but gold is acting as a preferred currency, certainly preferred to the US dollar. Somewhere ahead, I believe gold will break out against the euro and the yen and ultimately against ALL paper currencies. This will be the beginning to the "real bull market" in gold. That situation could occur month or even years ahead.
Everything that has occurred up to now, in my opinion, represents an "early taste" of the bull market that we are fated to see in gold.
The entire gold bull market will be a long and perhaps tortuous period measured in years, perhaps lasting five, ten or even fifteen years. During that time the central banks of the world will fight gold for all their worth in their bitter war to demonstrate to the world that paper money is better than intrinsic money. In the end the central banks will lose. They will lose because their argument is absurd on the face of it.
It takes capital and labor to produce an ounce of gold. It takes nothing at all to produce any amount of paper money. That's the fact and the logic of the comparisons. It reminds me of something Einstein once said. He said, "There are two things infinite -- space and human stupidity."
Yesterday I read a piece by an analyst in which this analyst claimed that there is no such thing as a primary trend. I read the piece carefully, and my conclusion was that this analyst didn't know what he was talking about.
Let's take a bull primary trend. A bull primary trend is seen when an item spends an extended period of time rising. Of course, in the course of the rise there will be many secondary corrections, but each correction will be followed by new highs. All true primary trends end in exhaustion. A primary bull trend ends when the last of the participants have "had enough" and take their profits.
As a rule, bull primary movements end amid great excitement and intense speculation. This occurs as a greedy public rushes in to buy the market while at the same time the "smart money" moves out. This creates the state of exhaustion, since the buyers cannot absorb all the supply that it put up for sale. A bull primary trend ends when the best that can be seen ahead is fully discounted in the price structure.
A bear primary trend is, of course, just the opposite. A bear primary trend ends in exhaustion -- it ends when the item has fully discounted the worst that can be seen ahead.
I should add that during a primary bull market the bull will attempt to rise while taking the fewest number of people with him. He does this with the help of multiple downside corrections and much scary sentiment.
During a bear market the bear will attempt to decline while taking the greatest possible number of people with him. The bear does this with the help of multiple upward corrections and a general sentiment of optimism and hope.
I hate to repeat this, but I'm going to anyway. After half a century of experience in the markets, I honestly believe that the public does not belong in common stocks. I've seen very few people who come out of a bull market with more money than they put in. It's just "too difficult" to stay in for the bumpy, usually nerve-wracking ride.
I apply this same statement to bonds. I don't believe the great majority of the public does well with bonds.
The question now is -- how will the public do with gold? Of course, we don't know, since the public has not really started to buy gold or gold shares. My bet is that somehow the public, when they finally come into the gold market, will find a way to lose. The bitter fact is that the average person would probably do better just keeping their money in the bank in CDs or in T-bills or in a money market fund.
I liken the situation very much to Las Vegas. I talk to many people who visit Las Vegas regularly. Almost without exception they tell me that they either "break even" or "come out ahead."
As far as I'm concerned, these people are either lying or they're in denial. Las Vegas was created to separate people from their money. Wall Street may not have been created to separate people from their money, but it ends up the same way. For the average investor, the only difference between Wall Street and Las Vegas is that Las Vegas does it faster. Sad, very sad, but true.
Dec, gold was down 4 .50 to 391.50. Dec. silver was down 5 to 5.24. Jan. platinum was down 4.40 to 755.90. Dec. palladium was down 3.75 to 192.00.
Gold/Dollar Index ratio was down 9.60 to 428.80.
Gold backed off in the face of the pop in the dollar. Gold correcting, but today was actually not that much of a sell-off.
Gold shares continue very nervous, very volatile, which is par for the course in the early phase of a bull market. If gold coughs, the gold stocks "freak out," and drop as a group.
CONCLUSION -- Stock market got mildly oversold, and today up she went. The
atmosphere and sentiment remains very bullish, with the thinking that somehow the tech stocks are going to "get you your money back." Note -- every day tech stocks dot the "15 most active" list.
The most important, but by far the least understood, area of the market and economy is money. But ironically, this is currently the area of greatest danger. However, as long as the stock market can ignore the big picture of money, the fun can continue.
Today's strong dollar works two ways. A strong dollar helps to regain faith in the dollar itself, but ironically a strong dollar is negative for our chronic trade deficit. I did have the feeling today that behind the rally was the dollar, which opened up strongly and remained strong throughout the day.
Historically, investors tend to "feel good" during Thanksgiving week. The only group that feels lousy are the turkeys. By the way, I was in semi-shock when I read all about how turkeys are treated, force-fed and turned out en masse in today's New York Times (on the op-ed page). After reading the article, I had visions of going vegetarian.
In all honesty, our mass-treatment of "to be eaten" animals is a disgrace. Some day it will be halted. They say if you ever visit a beef or a pig
slaughterhouse, you'll never eat meat again. I believe it. What men won't do for money.
Money equals power. And power rules the world. I've often thought that mankind's greatest curse is its everlasting quest for power, both on the part of individuals and groups and all the way up to nations. The unbridled quest for power is a curse, a curse, a curse!!
For a perfect example of the quest for power, watch the pre-presidential campaigns. The
polls, it seems, will stop at nothing. Why the frantic desire to get re-elected. Maybe it's because professional
polls don't know what else to do.
Perhaps the greatest gift of religion is the thesis that to God alone belongs the power. But somehow, that concept doesn't seem to make much difference in man's treatment of his follow men -- or to his good friends, the animals.
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Caribbean nationals in U.S. urged to
recommit themselves to the region
Monday, October 20, 2003
WASHINGTON, D.C.: Jamaica's
Minister of Development, Dr. Paul Robertson, has called on Caribbean
nationals living in the United States to recommit themselves to the
cause of aiding the economic and social development of the Caribbean.
He also urged them to reaffirm
their unique social and cultural identities, as Caribbean people, within
their countries of residence, JIS reports indicate. The minister's
comments came during his address at the sixth annual awards banquet of
the National Coalition on Caribbean Affairs (NCOCA), held recently in
the Washington D.C. suburb of Silver Spring, Maryland.
Dr. Robertson stressed the need for
greater Caribbean unity through joint action, echoing Prime Minister P.
J. Patterson's charge to CARICOM nationals in New York earlier this
month, to "actively aid the process of regional integration through
greater participation" in the social, economic, and political
affairs of their home countries.
"While the (political)
boundaries of CARICOM are not confined to the physical boundaries of our
regional homelands, the living boundaries of CARICOM are to be found
wherever CARICOM nationals or their progeny reside and work," the
minister said.
Dr. Robertson, who represented the
Prime Minister at the function, said that the West Indian diaspora
communities, not only in the United States but throughout the world,
were in effect the true demographic and cultural boundaries of CARICOM.
"We want to have overseas West Indians fully engaged with the rest
of us in the region in consolidating Caribbean regional
integration," he said.
The minister also observed that the
phenomenon of globalization, as well as the ongoing process of trade
liberalization, coupled with the proliferation of new technologies and
the increasing dominance of large international corporate entities,
posed significant challenges for small, developing states, such as those
in the Caribbean.
He also reminded the gathering that
the Caribbean countries accounted for less than one percent of total
world trade and continued to face daunting problems with respect to
penetrating major global markets.
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Dow Theory Letter
# 1362
By Richard
Russell
November 26, 2003
OPPORTUNITY & TIMING
- There are a few times in an investor’s life when the opportunity for huge profits lies ahead. Such periods in the stock market occurred in 1932, 1942, 1949, 1974 and 1980-82. People who loaded up with common stocks at those times and held those stocks made fortunes.
I believe another such a time is now. And I’m referring to the current young bull market in gold. Subscribers who have been with me during recent years were urged to buy gold stocks back in 1999. Those who did buy the suggested gold stocks and held those stocks now have substantial profits.
I believe that fortunes will be made in the years ahead by those who are now establishing major positions in gold and gold shares. I’ve said this a number times before, but I want to repeat it —
These primary moves last longer than anyone believe possible — and they take the items higher than anyone thinks possible. We’re now in a primary bull market in gold.
I believe gold (and very probably silver) will make fortunes for those who now take major positions in the precious metals.
I want to repeat something that a prominent Wall Street millionaire told me half a century ago — tough words that I never forgot. “Russell, my boy” this gentleman offered, “Do you know why stock brokers never make big money in a bull market?” I confessed that I didn’t know. He answered, “They don’t make big money in a bull market, because they never believe their own bull shit.”
In other words, the brokers tell their clients “what a great market this is,” but they’re just blabbing. If they really believed that it was a great market they’d be loading up on stocks themselves, which of course, they never do.
So this is my position — I believe gold below and even somewhat above 400 dollars an ounce is dirt cheap. In view of the amount of Fed-generated fiat paper that will have to be churned out in coming years (it will be in the multi-trillions of dollars), gold is the cheapest thing around. The US government, states, cities, corporations and individuals are currently loaded with $32 trillion in debt. On top of that, the US government has additional unfunded liabilities of around $44 trillion, all of which will have to financed.
For these reasons, it’s my thesis that gold at $400 an ounce is ridiculously cheap. As a comparison, gold today is less than half the price it was at its 1980 high. I believe three or four or five years from now we’ll look back at today’s price of $400
gold and ask ourselves, “Where the devil were we? What were we thinking about? Gold at $400 was cheaper than dirt. Why didn’t we recognize this back in the year 2003?”
As I see it, this is one of those rare times in an investor’s life when he can buy an undervalued asset at a bargain price. This is a time when you can buy real money with fiat paper. At this time you can buy real money, gold, with “junk” fiat paper which is created “out of thin air” by the Federal Reserve.
Big profits have already been made by those who bought gold and gold shares two or three years ago. But that is nothing compared with what I see ahead — as the bull market in gold moves on. We are now in the accumulation phase of the gold bull market. This is the phase where seasoned, knowledgeable investors build their positions — even while the public and most neophyte “investors” are either ignorant of what’s happening or at a time when the public actually dislikes the very product which could make them a future fortune.
But the secret to all this is the necessity to ACT. Knowledge is wonderful, but in this business, knowledge isn’t worth a damn unless you have the courage to “pull the trigger” — to ACT.
I’ve listed gold stocks and gold and gold funds until I’m dizzy, until some subscribers have written to tell me that I should “get off gold,” that they’re tired of hearing about it. So, dear subscribers, it’s now up to you. Bull markets are great, knowledge is great — but there’s no substitute for acting. Act, act, act.
GREENSPAN STORY - There’s something else that has been festering in this brain of mine, and I want to tell you about it. It underlies a lot of what’s been happening over the last six or seven years. Here’s the weird story, as I untangle it.
Back in late-1996 Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan noted that stocks were becoming expensive and the market was becoming “frothy.” That was when he issued his famous “irrational exuberance” warning.
But stocks continued higher despite Greenspan’s widely-advertised warning. Then, incredibly, Greenspan ignored his own warning and “bought” into the thesis that we were living in a new tech world, and that valuations were no longer a serious consideration. In fact, spouting his thesis of “productivity,” Greenspan actually became a cheerleader for the last, crazy years of the great bull market.
When the market collapsed during 2000 to 2002, Greenspan finally recognized the seriousness of the situation — worse, he realized how stupidly wrong he had been as a cheerleader for the biggest speculative stock market bubble in US history.
Greenspan later lamely explained that bubbles can only be recognized after they have burst. This brought a laugh from Wall Street sophisticates.
But Greenspan knew what to expect after a great speculative bubble bursts. Greenspan has little instincts for the markets, but he does know his market history. After a great speculative bubble bursts, history tells you to expect a recession or worse.
What to do? Greenspan knew that if a recession hit, he would be blamed for it, blamed because instead of raising stock margins back in late-1996, instead of raising interest rates, instead of pressing against the wind as he should have, he opened the floodgates of money creation and allowed the bull market to literally “blow its top.” Thus, Greenspan knew that his reputation would be destroyed if a recession and probably a severe recession hit, following the stock market collapse.
So to protect his legacy, Greenspan decided to “hold off the bear,” at least hold off the bear until he was out of office. This would require driving interest rates down to a 45 year low, holding them there, and flooding the system with the greatest ocean of liquidity in US history. This, decided a desperate Greenspan, would save his legacy. As background, Greenspan would justify his position by insisting that the US was in danger of dreaded deflation, and that he, as chairman of the Fed, was there to see that it didn’t happen.
That, I believe, is the REAL story of the last seven years. Many analysts believe that Greenspan, politician that he has always been, has opened the monetary floodgates to ensure the re-election of George Bush, Jr. I don’t think that’s the real story. I don’t think Greenspan gives a damn about George Bush. I think Greenspan is thinking of his own screw-ups and his own legacy. And that’s why the market, following the October, 2002 low, has recovered as it has, and why this nation has built this monstrous edifice of debt.
At any rate, that’s how Richard Russell sees the picture. And believe me, it’s not a pretty picture. It’s a picture that has been drastically worsened to save the legacy of one man, Alan Greenspan.
BONDS & GOLD — There are a lot of misconceptions about both bonds and gold. For instance, it’s widely held by many advisors that bonds are a racket. Or as crusty old Franz Pick used to say, “bonds are guaranteed certificates of confiscation.” Of course, over the long term that is absolutely true, due to systematic central bank inflation. But bonds do throw off interest, and if you have enough bonds, and you continue to reinvest most of the interest you can live off your bonds.
Sure, in the end bonds will chip away at your purchasing power, so to offset the cost of inflation you must save. For instance, if inflation is 5% you must save enough and compound enough to increase your income 5% every year. That can be done, and I’ve done it.
Then there is this stupid misconception about gold. For instance, I often hear some ignoramus say, “What good is gold? I pay my rent and buy my food with dollars, not gold. If I go to Safeway and buy a load of groceries, the check-out lady won’t take a krugerrand in payment. She won’t even know what the hell a krugerrand is.”
Of course, she won’t. So you don’t try to pay for your groceries with a gold coin. You simply go to your local coin dealer and sell one krugerrand for dollars. And that’s what you buy your groceries with. That should not be too difficult to understand. Furthermore, in time I believe most banks will deal in gold coins. As the price of gold rises, you will see an increasing number of places where you can buy and sell gold.
Hey, if you’re here in La Jolla and you’ve lost your wallet and all you have with you is an American Eagle, my good friend, Leon, the La Jolla coin dealer, will pay you cash for your eagle. And believe it or not, if the price of gold rises that day Leon will even pay you more for your eagle.
Question — Russell, we’ve seen M-3, the broad money supply dropping off week after week. In fact, over the last few months M-3 is down over $150 billion. Could this be signs of a slowing economy? This morning on the Bloomberg , we read -- “Nov. 17 — US stock-index futures dropped before exchanges opened on concern that growth in the world’s largest economy may not be as robust as some investors anticipated. Asian and European shares also tumbled.” (Russell comment — Japan’s Nikkei gapped down from a huge “head-and-shoulders” top).
Answer — I’ve been drawing attention to the strengthening long bonds and the declining M-3 money supply, and I said that the bond market appears to be discounting slowing business. OK, let’s assume that business actually is slowing, and that US consumers (punch-drunk with debt) are finally cutting back on their spending.
Let’s assume all the above, and with a presidential election coming up, what’s the Fed’s reaction liable to be? My answer is that the Fed will open the flood gates of money-creation even wider. The Fed will likely cut short rates to half a percent and will buy the long bonds to bring long rates down. If the US economy starts to slump, then we’ll again hear talk of the dreaded DEFLATION, and the Fed will go wild, releasing an ocean of expanding liquidity. The result could be to send the dollar into a tailspin. If that happens, increasing attention will be given to the safety of real money — gold.
Question — What do you see as the greatest danger if the US economy begins to slump?
Answer — Without doubt, it’s the problem of the combined $32 trillion of debt owned by the US government, the states, the counties, the cities, the corporations and our fellow Americans. In other words, the entire country is up to its eye-balls in debt. Under such conditions, deflation would be an economic death-sentence. As far as the Fed is concerned, it cannot be allowed.
THE MARKET — what about the stock market at this point? Let’s turn to my old stand-by, Dow Theory. On November 3 the Dow closed at 9858.46. The Dow has not been higher since. On the same day, the D-J Transportation Average closed at 2940.73. Three days later on November 5 the Transports surged to close at 2985.41. The Dow did NOT confirm. From there the Averages backed off — which is where we are today. I might add that on November 3 the S&P 500 recorded its closing high of 1059.02, and the S&P has not been higher since.
As a marker or gauge of whether the stock market could be in serious trouble, the easiest quick-measure is to watch the 50-day moving average of the Dow. We’ve never had serious market trouble without the Dow initially breaking below its 50-day MA. As of today, the 50-day MA of the Dow stands at 9662.10. For further reference, the 50-day MA of the S&P stands at 1037.18. For the Nasdaq, the 50-day MA stands at 1905.50.
Utility Average — This Average has a history of leading the market, sometimes by a few weeks and other times by many months. The Utility Average recorded its closing high on November 3 at 255.38. From there this Average headed down, and the Utility Average is now well below its 50-day MA, which now stands at 250.70. I take the break down of the D-J Utility Average as a bearish omen.
PTI — My PTI (Primary Trend Index) has formed a perfect head-and-shoulders top (see chart on Page 3). On Friday, November 14, support on the PTI was violated.
Sentiment — The percentage of bearish advisors has been below 50% all during 2003. The latest figures from Investor’s Intelligence show bullish advisors at 57.3% and bearish advisors at 20.4%. Over the last few months, insider selling has been setting records with figures as high as over 50 shares sold for every one bought.
Question — “What percentage of gold and silver should you hold in your portfolio?
Answer — This is a question that I can’t answer because it has to do with emotions. No matter what I say, some subscribers are going to feel “more comfortable” in dollars, Eurodollars, stocks, Asian stocks, gold, silver or with most of their net worth in their home. Furthermore, as conditions change, as one asset moves up and another moves down, emotions change and thinking changes.
For myself, I want roughly one-third of my assets in gold with some silver. I don’t want any common stocks, and I want some German short bonds denominated in euros. I’m afraid of the dollar, but I have a house that’s denominated in dollars, and I have some muni bonds denominated in dollars. I honestly don’t know what the “cup of gold” is in this economy, but I do know that I don’t want any debt.
After World War I, the great financier and advisor to the president, Bernard Baruch, was asked what people should do. Baruch gave his answer in three words — “Work and save.” That probably is still the best advice.
Individual bankruptcies are now at an all-time high. This has occurred in the face of what economists call an “improving economy.” Actually, non-business bankruptcies rose 7.8% to 1.63 million for the year ended Sept. 30. Furthermore, 42% of Americans who took the 401(k) distributions last year failed to roll them over, but instead spent their distributions, even though in the process they incurred taxes and penalties. What happens, we must ask, if the US economy now turns down?
WHAT TO READ – I’m often asked what I read and why. So here goes – I think the best source for what’s going on is contained in the daily Financial Times. That’s my number one choice in newspapers. My second choice is the New York Times. After that comes the cheerleading Wall Street Journal. Next I read the Los Angeles Times, and the very valuable Christian Science Monitor. Finally, I skim Investors Business Daily. I also like the weekly Washington Post, which is a collection of the best articles during the past week.
As for magazines, number one is a tie between the great Economist and Fortune. Second is cheerleading Barron’s for statistics and an occasional enlightening article. Forbes is OK, and then there’s Worth. I skim Time and Newsweek and US News & World Report mainly to get a feel for what the population is reading. Actually, I read dozens of magazines, and I receive slews of reports and assorted information daily from my generous subscribers.
That’s about the story of what I read. True, after years of reading the same publications you learn to skim or to pick out articles that you think will be valuable. Incidentally, people ask me what I’d do if I retired. The ironic answer is that I’d probably be doing the same darn thing – reading and thinking.
INVESTMENT POSITION – I’m keeping the bear in the box. Why? Because we’re living through an upward correction in an ongoing bear market. Back in 1999 when I first called a bear market I wrote that this bear market could be much like the 1966 to 1974 bear market, in that it could have one or more big corrections that would, at the time, be called “a new bull market.”
I added that I expected the Fed to fight the bear “tooth and nail” in an attempt to reverse the tide. So far, this has happened, but I must admit that I didn’t think the Fed would go as far as it has. All the Fed’s “work,” I firmly believe, will ultimately make the bear market worse than it would have been otherwise. The Fed has succeeded in rendering the US loaded with upwards of $32 trillion in debt. All that debt will have to be paid off one way or another. The classic way for the US to pay off its debt is via inflation of the money supply. “The more things change, the more they stay the same.”
Hello Richard,
My head and my heart have been doing battle over something I’d like you to speak to. My heart has always said stay out of debt. But my head says the value of the dollar is going to decrease. Therefore borrow now and pay back with dollars of lesser value later. The perfect strategy would seem to be to borrow dollars at these incredibly low interest rates and buy gold and gold stock. In fact I did this in a small way last March and it has worked out quite well. But to do it in any meaningful amounts makes me uncomfortable. From having read you over the years I think you would say “if it makes you uncomfortable, don’t do it. A good night’s sleep is worth more.” But my head says go for it. How great is the risk of such a strategy?
Thanks
Tom
The above e-mail I received recently. And the subscriber has a good point. My own inclination is to own my home outright. Thus, if we head into a huge squeeze on debt I know I will not lose my house. For instance, in a debt-crash, interest rates could climb sky-high, and those with variable mortgages could be pressed against the wall.
The other side of the coin is to take out the largest mortgage possible, and perhaps put all the money into gold coins. In that case, no matter what happens you’ll know that you own a store of wealth that cannot be affected by mass bankruptcies or anything else that I can think of off-hand.
As I see it, we’re at a very interesting and economically dangerous period in history. We have the problem of terrorism. We have the problem of the US spending $400 billion a year in defense. We have the problem of the massive negative trade balance, negative current account balance and the huge negative budget balance.
It’s almost impossible in my mind to understand how the dollar can hold up against the spending and debt-building that the US is now incurring. Again, this bespeaks to me of the safety of gold.
I view the current situation as the US sort of “sleep-walking” through a maze of potential dangers. The stock market is overvalued, real estate is overvalued, the dollar is overvalued, yet there is a strange sort of “What me worry?” attitude in the nation. Maybe I’m just a born worrier. But I don’t think so – I believe I’m a born realist. Let history be the judge.
Next Posting: December 17, 2003
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European Banks Say Information Exchange Can't Start In 2004
Brussels
21 February 2003
The European Union's (Austria, Belgium, Denmark ,Finland, France,
Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy ,Luxembourg, The Netherlands, Portugal,
Spain, Sweden ,United Kingdom) recent decision to apply its Savings Tax Directive from 1st January 2004 has come under fire from the European Banking Federation (FBE), which warns that it will be de facto impossible for tax administrations and financial institutions to implement the Directive on time.
The FBE strongly recommends that the commencement date should be deferred until 1 January 2005, pointing out that the recommendation that the Directive be implemented on 1 January 2004 was originally made in 2001 at a time when agreement on a final text was expected by end of 2002, at the very latest. The deadline was missed, and the Council does not expect to adopt the Directive until March 2003 or perhaps even later.
The FBE says it is conscious of the further official steps that still need to be taken before the Directive is adopted and implemented. Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Monaco, Andorra and San Marino need to approve the EU proposals, and the terms must then be translated into formal bilateral conventions. Switzerland might, in particular, have to organize a referendum.
The FBE also notes that, even within the EU, there are still some reservations: the Austrian Government has stated that the implementation of the proposed measures might require the modification of the Austrian Constitution. Moreover, it is arguable that the European Parliament and the European Economic and Social Committee need to be consulted, according to Article 94 of the Treaty, given that the Council has materially amended the text initially presented by the Commission.
Furthermore, when the Directive has been adopted it will need to be transposed into national law in all Member States. The details and complexities involved in both the information exchange system and the withholding tax system should not be under-estimated, says the FBE. Member States will also need further time to adopt supplementary regulations and guidance. Many Member States are unlikely to pass the necessary laws and ancillary regulations before the end of 2003. This is particularly the case in those Member States where scheduled political elections risk slowing down the legislative process.
On a technical level, says the FBE, the transposition may be particularly problematic in some countries that will have to apply a withholding tax system that fundamentally differs from the classical deductions of tax at source. Paying agents and competent authorities in the EU and in Switzerland will need considerable time (at least 12 months) to be ready to develop, test and implement IT systems and procedures. To illustrate further, the systems of many banks that currently categorize their clients only according to whether they are resident or non-resident, will have to be adapted so as to record the country of residence of their clients. Once systems have been developed and tested, banks will have to organize intensive staff training programmes to ensure correct implementation of the new procedures. This process will be very costly and time-consuming, at a time when banks have to adapt their systems to new banking supervision standards (Basel II) and
International Accounting Standards.
A further complication is that fundamental changes to systems will be necessary to reflect the fact that the Directive goes beyond actual payments of interest. The Directive covers sales and redemption of bonds and other fixed-rate instruments and will embrace income from many collective investment vehicles. Information will need to be collected that is not currently reported by banks and in most countries this will require radical changes to the processing systems for securities transactions.
Member banks of the FBE are convinced that banks and tax administrations will not be ready to apply the new regulations on 1 January 2004. This may raise the question of the liability of banks for any non-compliance. The problem will be particularly sensitive in the context of the withholding tax. Whereas it may be possible for information to be gathered retrospectively (on interest payments made on or after the date of implementation of the Directive), it is not possible to deduct tax from a payment that has already been made. The FBE says it does not believe that it is sensible for banks to have to rely on a soft implementation policy (i.e. a period when tax officials accept a reasonable degree of non-compliance if a bank has shown that it has made reasonable efforts to meet its initial obligations).
For all these practical reasons the FBE strongly recommends that ECOFIN should defer implementation of the Directive until 1 January 2005.
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“Caribbeat”
Column - New York Daily News, by Jared McCallister
Brooklyn-born Jared McCallister has written the “Caribbeat” column since 1983. The only feature of its kind in a major New York newspaper, the column appears on Sundays in The News’ editions in the five boroughs and on Long Island. McCallister is also an assistant news editor at the paper.
Email: jmccallister@edit.nydailynews.com
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/
Tourism workshop in Barbados
Saturday, March 1st, 2003
Natural habitats, insurance and how to market attractions are some of the wide-ranging topics on the agenda at a four-day workshop in Barbados this month on managing tourist sites and attractions. The event is being sponsored by the Caribbean Tourism Organization.
The session - the first in a series being conducted during the year by the organization - will be held March 25 through 28. It is open to individuals in the public or private sector who work at or oversee a major tourist site or attraction in a Caribbean country and want to examine management techniques and strategies.
Penelope Hyman, executive director of the Barbados National Trust, is the workshop facilitator.
Upcoming sessions include management of service quality, dynamic supervisory management and integrated marketing.
For information, contact the organization's New York office at (212) 635-9530 or E-mail:
get2cto@dorsai.org.
Buju Banton release
The new music from dance hall star Buju Banton is just around the corner. "Friends for Life," Banton's latest effort on VP Records, will be released March 11, followed by a concert on March 13 at the Hammerstein Ballroom in Manhattan.
Banton's release will be the first of the Caribbean music label's products to benefit from a new distribution agreement with record giant WEA/Atlantic Records, which will handle VP's domestic distribution and sales.
This week, VP and Atlantic will hold an album release party in Manhattan for Banton's label mate Wayne Wonder, whose "No Holding Back" CD debuts Tuesday.
Reggae culture
The veteran musical group Culture, arguably the hardest working band in reggae, will perform at S.O.B.'s, 204 Varick St. in Manhattan, on March 11.
The trio of Joseph Hill, Albert Walker and Telford Nelson, which performs about 100 gigs a year, has found time to record a live album and DVD, "Live in Africa." The band also has recorded a new studio album, which is due to be released later this year.
Doors open at 7 p.m. and showtime is 10 p.m. Tickets are $22 in advance and $25 on the day of the show. Call (212) 243-4940 for reservations and information. And visit
www.sobs.com.
Aruba bonus
Single parents can have it hard, so the Tamarijn Aruba Beach Resort in Oranjestad, Aruba, is offering some relief - a nearly 30% discount for single parents traveling with children up to age 18.
The all-inclusive resort is waiving charges for additional occupants for a single paying adult sharing a room with up to three children. For reservations and information, call(800) 554-2008 or contact your travel agent. And visit the resort's Web site: www.tamarijnaruba.com.
Honoring women
The Caribbean American Chamber of Commerce and Industry will be celebrating Women's History Month with its annual Salute to Women History Makers reception Wednesday at Brooklyn Borough Hall, 209 Joralemon St., at 5:30 p.m.
"We are continuing our annual tradition of honoring an ethnically diverse group of dynamic women in business, government, the clergy, the media, health care, educators," said chamber president and CEO Roy A. Hastick, speaking about the 13 History Maker honorees. "These are women who are making outstanding contributions and serving as role models."
Pre-registration is required. For information on the event and Caribbean American chamber services, call (718) 834-4544. Visit the chamber's new Web site at www.caribbeantradecenter.com.
Tribal treat
Reggae music, Afro-Beat, hip hop, soca and African drumming will resonate in Manhattan in March when the versatile Tribe of Djembe band performs at the Supper Club.
The Tribe of Djembe and Friends After Work Party series will be held Fridays through March 28 at the club, at 240 W. 47th St. (between Broadway and 8th Ave.).
Doors open at 5 p.m. and showtimes are 7:30 p.m. and 9 p.m. Admission is $5 and ladies are admitted free. Call (917) 705-6860 and visit the band's Web site: www.wildreggae.com.
Carnival online
Trinidad Carnival - and its major components - comes to home computers around the world today through an Internet pay-per-view event, sponsored by the Tourism and Industrial Development Company of Trinidad and Tobago.
See the Chutney Soca Monarch contest, the Soca Monarch competition, Dimanche Gras and the Parade of Bands this week.
The Internet shows - which are $7.95 per show - will be available online until March 31. To access the shows, visit www.visittnt.com. For information, call (718) 257-3480.
Turks & Caicos Opens New U.S. Office
The Turks & Caicos Islands, in recognizing the need for further representation in North America, has opened a new office in the United States. In addition to their offices in Florida and Toronto, the TCI will now have an office serving the Northeast U.S. located near Boston, Massachusetts.
"We realize these are trying times for our industry," says Director of Tourism, John Skippings, "However, it would be foolish not to recognize our strongest market and make sure we have the resources to serve those customers properly." Since the needs are varied, the representative will be responsible for sales and marketing to travel agents and will assist staff on the Islands with product development and public relations activities in a territory stretching from Washington, D.C, to Chicago, Boston, and New York.
"I am very excited about working for the Turks & Caicos," said Melanie Alexander, Sales and Marketing Agent for the Turks and Caicos Islands Tourism Board. "It has always been a favorite destination of mine. Little Water Cay with the rock iguanas is fascinating, the National Museum on Grand Turk is a great way to discover the unique history of the Islands, and the limestone caves in Middle Caicos are a must see. Of course, having been to hundreds of beaches in my lifetime, Grace Bay is by far the best." She promises promotional activity for the island will increase over the coming months.
The new office is located in Arlington, next to Cambridge and fifteen minutes from downtown Boston, at 62 Paul Revere Road, Suite #2, Arlington, MA 02476. The Turks and Caicos office can be reached at 781-648-1583 for both phone and fax, and at mmatravels@netzero.com . The US Toll-free number for the Turks and Caicos is 800 241 0824.
The 40 islands of the Turks and Caicos, of which eight are inhabited, make up a self-governing British Overseas Territory located 575 miles southeast of Miami. The islands consist of two groups: the Turks, which include the Capital island Grand Turk and Salt Cay; and the Caicos, which include South Caicos, Middle Caicos, North Caicos, Parrot Cay, Pine Cay and Providenciales.
The islands are renowned for their award-winning beaches, excellent diving and fishing, and array of first-class exclusive and elegant resorts, private hideaways and spas.
There are 3 daily direct flights from Miami, daily flights from Charlotte, flights direct from New York and weekly non-stop flights direct from Boston, Atlanta, Toronto and London to the Turks and Caicos Islands as well as direct flights from Montego Bay and Nassau. The Official Tourist Board website for the islands is www.turksandcaicostourism.com. Turks and Caicos Tourist Offices are located in the USA (1-800 241 0824 and 781-648-1583), Canada (866 413 8875) and the UK (+44 208 350 1017).
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